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We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a generalized empirical likelihood framework—based on distributional uncertainty sets constructed from nonparametric f-divergence balls—for Hadamard differentiable functionals, and in particular, stochastic optimization problems. As consequences of this theory, we provide a principled method for choosing the size of distributional uncertainty regions to provide one- and two-sided confidence intervals that achieve exact coverage. We also give an asymptotic expansion for our distributionally robust formulation, showing how robustification regularizes problems by their variance. Finally, we show that optimizers of the distributionally robust formulations we study enjoy (essentially) the same consistency properties as those in classical sample average approximations. Our general approach applies to quickly mixing stationary sequences, including geometrically ergodic Harris recurrent Markov chains. 

Standard stochastic optimization methods are brittle, sensitive to stepsize choice and other algorithmic parameters, and they exhibit instability outside of well-behaved families of objectives. To address these challenges, we investigate models for stochastic optimization and learning problems that exhibit better robustness to problem families and algorithmic parameters. With appropriately accurate models—which we call the aprox family—stochastic methods can be made stable, provably convergent, and asymptotically optimal; even modeling that the objective is nonnegative is sufficient for this stability. We extend these results beyond convexity to weakly convex objectives, which include compositions of convex losses with smooth functions common in modern machine learning. We highlight the importance of robustness and accurate modeling with experimental evaluation of convergence time and algorithm sensitivity.